WTPS51 PGTW 190900 WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 261019082457 2026101906 01P WATI 007 01 110 21 SATL 060 T000 207S 1568W 045 R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 115 SW QD 100 NW QD T012 236S 1513W 040 R034 130 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 100 NW QD AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 012HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (WATI) WARNING NR 007 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (WATI) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 20.7S 156.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 156.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 23.6S 151.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 155.4W. 19OCT26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM EAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECOUPLING SYSTEM, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND MID-LEVEL ROTATION THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY STRONG NORTHWEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 090435Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THE EXPOSED LLCC AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LLCC SEEN IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH RANGED FROM 35-55 KNOTS. 01P WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS AND PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEETS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE, OR HAS ALREADY BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO PHASE WITH A 500MB TROUGH AND MOVE UNDER THE JET STREAM, AND COMPLETE ETT AS A GALE-FORCE LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 22 FEET. // 0126101318 60S1645W 20 0126101400 61S1648W 20 0126101406 63S1651W 20 0126101412 69S1649W 20 0126101418 76S1647W 20 0126101500 81S1641W 25 0126101506 84S1638W 25 0126101512 90S1635W 30 0126101518 94S1637W 30 0126101600 101S1635W 30 0126101606 109S1634W 35 0126101612 117S1633W 40 0126101618 122S1635W 45 0126101700 121S1636W 55 0126101700 121S1636W 55 0126101706 133S1632W 55 0126101706 133S1632W 55 0126101712 143S1631W 60 0126101712 143S1631W 60 0126101718 150S1634W 65 0126101718 150S1634W 65 0126101718 150S1634W 65 0126101800 156S1628W 65 0126101800 156S1628W 65 0126101800 156S1628W 65 0126101806 163S1623W 65 0126101806 163S1623W 65 0126101806 163S1623W 65 0126101812 174S1614W 60 0126101812 174S1614W 60 0126101818 187S1602W 50 0126101818 187S1602W 50 0126101900 199S1589W 50 0126101900 199S1589W 50 0126101906 207S1568W 45 NNNN