WTPS31 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (WATI) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (WATI) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 20.7S 156.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 156.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 23.6S 151.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 155.4W. 19OCT26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM EAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECOUPLING SYSTEM, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND MID-LEVEL ROTATION THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY STRONG NORTHWEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 090435Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THE EXPOSED LLCC AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LLCC SEEN IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH RANGED FROM 35-55 KNOTS. 01P WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS AND PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEETS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE, OR HAS ALREADY BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO PHASE WITH A 500MB TROUGH AND MOVE UNDER THE JET STREAM, AND COMPLETE ETT AS A GALE-FORCE LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 22 FEET.// NNNN