WTPN21 PGTW 230130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 12.2N 165.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 230000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 165.9E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 165.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY
178 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD AROUND THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF 97W. MODELS DEPICT A GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY POSITION 
WITH A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18-23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
240130Z.
//
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