WTIO30 FMEE 231242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/1/20262027
1.A REMNANT LOW 1 (AGUEDA)

2.A POSITION 2026/10/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.8 S / 48.6 E
(FIVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/10/24 00 UTC: 5.7 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

24H: 2026/10/24 12 UTC: 5.4 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2026/10/25 00 UTC: 4.7 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2026/10/25 12 UTC: 3.8 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

IN THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS COLLAPSED AROUND THE
LOW-LEVEL MINIMUM. A RESURGENCE HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST HOUR IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE TRUE COLOR SATELLITE IMAGES FROM
SUOMI-NPP AT 0950 UTC AND NOAA21 AT 1050 UTC SHOW A LOW-LEVEL CENTER
ONCE AGAIN VISIBLE. THE CONSENSUS OF OBJECTIVE ANALYSES, SATCON,
INDICATES A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED AROUND THE CENTER AT 30 KT, WHICH
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN PT AND DT AT 2.0
WITH A CI OF 2.5.

IN TERMS OF TRACK,  EXCEPT THAT AGUEDA'S WESTWARD MOVEMENT IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. AGUEDA CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS OVER
AFRICA, THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SHOULD DIRECT THE TRACK TOWARDS
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
DIRECTION OF THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT, LEADING IT TOWARDS THE AFRICAN
COAST OFF KENYA BY SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AGUEDA REMAINS
UNFAVORABLE, WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHERLY SHEAR AND CONTINUING
DRY AIR INTRUSION. DUE TO BURSTS OF CONVECTION, INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE, FACILITATED BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM. A MORE MARKED FILLING OF THE DEPRESSION WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WITHOUT SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=