WTIN20 DEMS 242110 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 24.10.2026 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 24.10.2026 BASED ON 1800 UTC OF 24.10.2026. SUB: DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL [PRE-CYCLONE WATCH FOR ANDHRA PRADESH AND ADJOINING SOUTH ODISHA COASTS.] THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SPEED OF 8 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS, LAY CENTERED AT 1800 UTC OF TODAY, THE 24TH OCTOBER, 2026 OVER THE SAME REGION, NEAR LATITUDE 15.5ON AND LONGITUDE 91.0OE, ABOUT 470 KM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF SRI VIJAYA PURAM (43333, ANDAMAN ISLANDS), 860 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM (43149, ANDHRA PRADESH), 950 KM EAST SOUTH EAST OF KAKINADA (43189, ANDHRA PRADESH), 1060 KM EAST OF MACHILIPATNAM (43185, ANDHRA PRADESH) AND 1130 KM EAST OF BAPATLA (ANDHRA PRADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY SOUTHWARDS, INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS OVER THE EASTCENTRAL & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL ON 25TH OCTOBER, 2026. CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM OVER THE EASTCENTRAL & ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BY 0000 UTC OF 26TH OCTOBER, AND INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AROUND 0000 UTC OF 27TH OCTOBER 2026. THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND REACH WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR ANDHRA PRADESH COAST AROUND 0000 UTC OF 28TH OCTOBER, 2026. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH & YANAM COASTS BETWEEN BAPATLA AND VISAKHAPATNAM AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 115-125 KMPH GUSTING TO 140 KMPH AROUND 0600 UTC OF 28TH OCTOBER 2026. FORECAST LOCATION AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN FOLLOWING TABLE: DATE/TIME POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC (UTC) (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E) WIND SPEED (KMPH) DISTURBANCE 24.10.26/2330 15.5/91.0 40-50 GUSTING TO 60 DEPRESSION 25.10.26/1130 14.8/90.9 45-55 GUSTING TO 65 DEPRESSION 25.10.26/2330 14.2/90.0 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION 26.10.26/1130 14.3/88.2 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM 26.10.26/2330 14.8/86.5 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM 27.10.26/1130 15.3/84.8 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM 27.10.26/2330 16.0/83.3 100-110 GUSTING TO 120 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM 28.10.26/1130 17.0/82.0 115-125 GUSTING TO 140 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM 28.10.26/2330 18.2/80.9 85-95 GUSTING TO 105 CYCLONIC STORM CLOUD DISTRIBUTION: (A) ISOLATED: <25%, SCATTERED:25-50%, BROKEN: 51-75%, SOLID:>75%, CONVECTION INTENSITY: (A) WEAK: CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE(CTT)>- 25OC, (B) MODERATE: CTT:-25OCTO-40OC, (C) INTENSE: CTT: -41OCTO -70OC AND (D) VERY INTENSE::LESS THAN -70OC PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) :NIL:0%, LOW:1-33%, MODERATE:34-66% AND HIGH:67-100% THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER COUNTRIES. VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY SPECIFIC BULLETINS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25KT GUSTING TO 35KT. A BUOY NEAR 16.5N/86.9E REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP) 1007.9 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED (MSW) 1030/6KT. ANOTHER BUOY NEAR 17.8N/89.2E REPORTED MSLP OF1007.9 HPA AND MSW 300/9KT. ANOTHER BUOY NEAR 13.9N/87E REPORTED MSLP OF 1008.3 HPA ANDMSW 1030/04KT. ANOTHER BUOY NEAR 17/85E REPORTED MSLP OF 1009.3 HPA AND MSW 300/04KT. AS PER INSAT 3D(S), THE VORTEX LAY OVER THE EASTCENTRAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD. INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED AS T1.5. SCATTERED TO BROKEN, LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN ISLANDS, WITH MINIMUM CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 70 TO 90OC. REMARKS \U2013 THE GUIDANCE FROM VARIOUS NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATES THAT THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1 FROM 24TH OCTOBER ONWARDS. THUS, MJO IS FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) DURING NEXT 7 DAYS. THE GUIDANCE FROM THE NCICS MODEL INDICATES PREVALENCE OF WESTERLY WIND ANOMALY (7-9MPS) ALONG WITH SIMULTANEOUS OCCURRENCE OF EQUATORIAL ROSSBY WAVE (ERW), KELVIN WAVE (KW) & MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) WAVE OVER SOUTH AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BOB AND EASTERLY WIND ANOMALY (7-9 MPS) OVER NORTH BOB. THESE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) AND ITS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE CENTRAL BOB TILL 27TH OCT. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 30OC OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BOB AND AROUND 29OC ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA. THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS AROUND 80-100 KJ/CM2OVER MOSTPARTS OF BAY OF BENGAL WITH 100-120 KJ/CM2 OVER SOME POCKETS OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, NORTH ANDAMAN SEA, PARTS OF SOUTHEAST BOB, EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST BOB. THE POSITIVE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 24 HOURS AND IS AROUND 100 X10-6S-1TO THE SOUTH OF SYSTEM AREA WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO 500 HPA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 5X10-6S-1 TO THE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED AND IS THE SAME AROUND 10 X10-6S-1 TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AREA. MID-LEVEL WIND-SHEAR IS MODERATE 05- 15 KT AND ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND ALONG THE EXPECTED PATH. THERE IS VERY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG ALL THE MODELS (GLOBAL, REGIONAL, DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND AI) WITH RESPECT TO FORMATION OF D OVER THE EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL ON 24TH OCTOBER (NCEP GFS, ECMWF & ECAI ON 24/12; NCUM G IMD AURORA ON 25/00 & NEPS, IMD GFS, IMD GEFS, PANGU WEATHER ON 25/12 & IMD MME ON 24/00). MODELS HAVE TODAY DELAYED THE INTENSIFICATION INTO CS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE INTENSIFICATION INTO CS DURING 25/12 TO 27/00 (NCEP GFS, ECMWF ON 25/12; ECAI, NCUM, AURORA, IMD MME ON 26/00 AND IMD & PANGU WEATHER ON 27/00). MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING INTENSIFICATION UPTO VSCS CATEGORY EXCEPT THE TWO AI MODELS IMD FCN AND FOURCAST NET. ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LANDFALL OVER ANDHRA PRADESH COAST WITH LANDFALL POINT VARYING BETWEEN 16N TO 17.8N. THE LANDFALL TIME IS VARYING BETWEEN 28/00 TO 28/18 UTC (NCEP GFS AROUND 28/18, NCUM, NEPS, IMD GFS, IMD GEFS & PANGU WEATHER AROUND 28/12, ECMWF 28/09, AURORA 28/00 AND IMD MME 28/07). HOWEVER, IMD-AURORA INDICATES NORTHEASTWARDS MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE ODISHA COASTS AND NCMRWF FOURCAST NET TOWARDS TAMIL NADU COAST WHICH ARE OUTLIERS. CLOUD DISTRIBUTION: (A) ISOLATED: <25%, SCATTERED:25-50%, BROKEN: 51-75%, SOLID:>75%, CONVECTION INTENSITY: (A) WEAK: CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE(CTT)>- 25OC, (B) MODERATE: CTT:-25OCTO-40OC, (C) INTENSE: CTT: -41OCTO -70OC AND (D) VERY INTENSE::LESS THAN -70OC PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) :NIL:0%, LOW:1-33%, MODERATE:34-66% AND HIGH:67-100% THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER COUNTRIES. VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY SPECIFIC BULLETINS. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ESTIMATION OF: (A) CURRENT LOCATION AND INTENSITY: HIGH (B) FORECAST TRACK: MODERATE TO HIGH (C) FORECAST INTENSITY: MODERATE TO HIGH CONSIDERING ALL ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY SOUTHWARDS, INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS OVER THE EASTCENTRAL & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL ON 25TH OCTOBER, 2026. CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM OVER THE EASTCENTRAL & ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BY 0000 UTC OF 26TH OCTOBER, AND INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AROUND 0000 UTC OF 27TH OCTOBER 2026. THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND REACH WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR ANDHRA PRADESH COAST AROUND 0000 UTC OF 28TH OCTOBER, 2026. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH & YANAM COASTS BETWEEN BAPATLA AND VISAKHAPATNAM AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 115- 125 KMPH GUSTING TO 140 KMPH AROUND 0600 UTC OF 28TH OCTOBER 2026.=