ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
241800Z-251800ZOCT2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241051ZOCT2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.4N 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR, INDIA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY 
AND CONVECTIVE BANDING FORMING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. A 240234Z ASCAT 
PASS REVEALS WINDS OF 25KTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF FORMATION WITHIN 
24 HOURS AND A REVERSAL IN STORM MOTION TOWARD THE WEST. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 241100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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